SNP Faces Major Setback: Exit Poll Predicts Only Ten Seats

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According to the exit poll, the Scottish National Party (SNP) is projected to secure just ten seats, a significant drop from the 48 out of 59 Scottish seats they won in 2019. There are 57 constituencies in Scotland, and if John Swinney manages to win only ten, it would be a severe disappointment for the party. On ITV’s results program, Nicola Sturgeon described the exit poll as “the grimmer end of expectations for the SNP,” criticizing the party’s campaign for failing to present a “unique selling point.”

John Swinney, who stepped in to lead the SNP in May after Humza Yousaf’s troubled tenure, was seen as a stabilizing figure who could prevent major losses. However, securing only ten seats is not much better than what might have been expected under Yousaf’s leadership. This indicates that Swinney’s efforts have not succeeded.

Here are four key takeaways:

  1. Scottish Independence Setback: With only a few seats in the House of Commons and a struggling administration in the Scottish Parliament, the SNP’s push for independence is severely weakened. A Labour government would likely disregard any calls for a second referendum.
  2. Leadership in Question: Swinney’s leadership is likely to be scrutinized. Despite being a senior figure in the party since 2007, his ability to lead the SNP forward and rebuild its strength is doubtful after such a poor election performance.
  3. Labour’s Rising Prospects: Labour now appears to be the frontrunner for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election. This could end nearly two decades of SNP dominance and position Anas Sarwar as the new First Minister. If Labour’s resurgence holds, it could signify a significant shift in Scottish politics.
  4. Accuracy of Exit Polls: While the UK-wide exit poll might not be as precise for Scotland, it’s not impossible that the SNP could end up with fewer seats than the Scottish Conservatives. This would be a dramatic and damaging outcome for the SNP, undermining their long-held message that independence would eliminate Conservative influence in Scotland.

The SNP has long promised that independence would free Scotland from Conservative rule. If the election results show more Conservative MPs from Scotland than SNP MPs, it would be a crushing blow to the party’s credibility and campaign.

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